Galloway: Hizbullah's victory has transformed the Middle East

The defeat of the regional superpower could yet open the way to a wider settlement of the Israel-Palestine conflict


by George Galloway in Beirut
The Guardian ½ 31 August 2006

http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1861527,00.html


As the smoke clears from the battlefield of the 34-day war in Lebanon, it would be a mistake to count the cost only in fallen masonry and fresh graves. All is changed, changed utterly, by the defeat that the whole of Israel is now debating, from the cabinet through the lively press to the embittered reservists at the falafel stall. Practically the only person in the world who claims Israel won the war is George Bush - and we all know his definition of the words "mission accomplished".

Reports that the Hizbullah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, expressed regret this week at having underestimated Israel's reponse to the capture of two of its soldiers were misleading. In fact, Nasrallah thanked God that the attack came when the resistance movement was prepared, as he was convinced Israel would have otherwise invaded later in the year at a time of its choosing.

If the fierce thicket of the Iraqi resistance stopped the Bush war spreading to Syria then the extraordinary Hizbullah victory has surely made the world think again about an attack on Iran. But the main - and maybe the most welcome - shift in the 40-year-old paradigm of the Israeli-Arab conflict is the puncturing of the belief in a permanent and unchallengeable Israeli military superiority over its neighbours and the hubris this has induced in Israeli leaders - from the sleek Shimon Peres through the roughhouse of Binyamin Netanyahu to the stumbling Mr Magoo premiership of Ehud Olmert.

The myth of invincibility is a souffle that cannot rise twice. Over the past week I have picked my way through the rubble of Dahia in downtown Beirut, now resembling London's East End at the height of the blitz, and across the south of Lebanon in towns such as Bint Jbeil whose centres look as if they have been hit by an earthquake. Here the litter of banned weapons lies like a legal time bomb - evidence of war crimes alleged by the UN and Amnesty International that in a genuine system of international justice would put Israel in the dock at The Hague. This, together with the beating Israel has received in international public opinion, is the collateral damage suffered alongside military humiliation.

Israel announced the capture of Bint Jbeil several times, but in truth it never held the town - or anywhere else for that matter - throughout the war. Despite raining down thousands of tons of high explosive on homes, schools, hospitals, roads, bridges, ambulances, UN posts, oil storage depots, electricity plants and virtually every petrol station south of Beirut (the bombers seemed to have a crazed thirst for petrol stations, while telling the world that they were kindly inviting the residents of south Lebanon to get into their cars and leave their homes for a little while), the Israelis were given a severe mauling by Hizbullah fighters when it came to boots on the ground.

Paradoxically, some believe that all this has blown open a window in which it is possible to glimpse the possibility of a comprehensive settlement of the near-century-old conflicts which lie behind the recent war. Now that the status quo ante has been swept away, we may even see an FW de Klerk moment emerge in Israel (and among its indispensable international backers).

The leader of the white tribes of apartheid South Africa waited until the critical mass of opposition threatened to overwhelm the position of the previously invincible minority, and sold the transfer of power on the basis that a settlement later, under more severe duress, would be less favourable. Israel's trajectory is now heading towards such a moment.

A comprehensive settlement now would of course look much like it has for decades: Israeli withdrawal from land occupied in 1967; respect for the legal rights of Palestinian refugees to return; the emergence of a real Palestinian state with east Jerusalem as its capital - a contiguous state with an Arab border, with no Zionist settlements and military roads, and with internationally guaranteed Palestinian control over its land, air, sea and water. In exchange there would be Arab recognition, normalisation and, in time, acceptance of Israel into the Middle East as something other than a settler garrison of the imperial west.

Just as you can't be a little bit pregnant, a settlement can't be a little bit comprehensive. Attempts - like the one more than a decade ago in Oslo - to obfuscate, shave and sculpt such a package to the point of unrecognisability will founder on the new reality.

The Arab world is waking up to its potential power. It has seen the Iraqis confound Anglo-American efforts to recolonise their country, the unbreakability, whatever the cost, of the Palestinian resistance, and now the success of Hizbullah. If there is no settlement there can only be war, war and more war, until one day it is Tel Aviv which is on fire and the Israeli leaders' intransigence brings the whole state down on their heads. Nor is it only Israel that will pay the price for continued conflict: the enduring injustice of Palestinian dispossession has already poisoned western-Muslim relations and helped spill violence and hatred on to our own streets. There is still time to choose peace. But make no mistake, with the victory of Hizbullah, a terrible beauty is born.



George Galloway is the Respect MP for Bethnal Green and Bow www.georgegalloway.com

The newly made international hero

Prior to the recent Israeli attacks on Lebanon, few people in the world knew who Hassan Nasrallah was. Hassan Nasrallah belongs to the Shiat sect of Islam which represent only 10% of all muslims worldwide. Of those who knew him, including middle easterns, many thought of him as a leader of a terrorist organization and some did not like his struggle for dominance in Lebanon with an Iranian backing.

Today, Hassan Nasrallah is a hero in the middle east. BBC News have described him as "... Lebanon's most powerful citizen today". Rallies all over the world and particularly in the Arab and Muslim worlds hail him as a hero and "their only hope against Israel". This is also the case in Sunni dominated countries like Egypt and Jordan etc. Public opinion amongst Arabs, Muslims, anti-imperliasm movements, Peace activists and many free-thinkers has been galvanized behind him. For the Muslims and Arabs (Muslims and non-Muslims), he represents the long lost honour. His name is mentioned all over the middle east always preceded by the word "Seyed" which means "Sir", a level of respect not given to the rulers of middle eastern countries.

It is becoming more apparent that the ruling regimes in the Arab world are becoming less and less relevant while movements like Hezbollah and Hamas are becoming more main stream. This is despite these organizations being labelled as terrorist organizations in the Western World including Australia. Indeed, the Saudi regime, after having initially blamed Hezbollah, are now slowly and tacticfully changing their position under the enormous pressure from the street. The ruling regimes in the middle east are now under a series threat of being irrelevant due to being unrepresentative of the majority view in the middle east.

It will become even more interesting if Hezbollah "wins" the war. Really, all Hezbollah needs to do is not to "loose" the war. This can simply be achieved by demonstrating loses to the Israeli army as well as getting Israel to accept an exchange of prisoners. If this happens, this will make most middle eastern regimes completly irrelevant and they will be under a series threat of being over turned. To me, this is probably the main reason why some middle eastern regimes have, shamefully, given the "green light" for Israel to finish Hezbollah and, in doing so, ending the lives of many innocent civilians.

Unknowingly, Israel has made an International hero out of an unknown person.

Hezbollah's Adventure

There is no question in my mind that the Israeli response to the capture of the Israeli soldiers was not only disproportionate but viscous and is typical of the Zionist entity. However, has Hezbollah's action been irresponsible?

Hezbollah's leader claimed on an Aljazeera interview that he has indicated earlier this year to some members of the Lebanese government that he would have to capture Israeli soldiers in order to be able to get back the captured Lebanese and that these members did not argue with him. However, Hezbollah has essentially acted without the approval of the Lebanese government and has engaged the whole country in a war without their choice. Would Hezbollah have had any other options though to get it's captured members back? I suspect not. However, it remains responsible for engaging Lebanon in this war and for this it must be answerable to the people of Lebanon after the war is over. For now, the Lebanese people are trying to act in unity in response to the Israeli aggression and to the human crisis at hand.

Dr Rice has been negotiating for a NATO peace keeping force to be deployed in south Lebanon for a period of two to three months. After which, the Lebanese forces be trained by the NATO forces to take control of south Lebanon. To me, this spells civil war in Lebanon. May be this is something that the Israeli and USA governments want anyway.

I believe that the Occupation of Palestine and issues with Palestinians can't be disengaged from the Lebanese issues. The US and Israeli governments are trying to split the issues in order to present Hezbollah's action as unprovoked, whereas in actual fact, it is seen by many as a response to the events in Gaza. Contrary to their argument, the root of the problem is not Hezbollah or Hamas. The root problem is the occupation that the Israeli government is exercising on Palestinian, Lebanese and Syrian Land. A problem which started in 1948.

The occupation has been the trigger for the formation of many resistance movements in the middle east. This single issue has acted as the glue that strengthened these organizations on a single goal and that is to stop oppression and occupation. Hezbollah has made a gamble. If Israel wins the war and destroys or disarms Hezbollah, and that is unlikely, then that could be fatal for Hezbollah. On the other hand, if Israel fails to accomplish its mission, then there may be a significant power shift in the middle east where Hezbollah, Iran and Syria become key players in the region.